Election 2023: Nine Weeks Until D-Day   - Campbell Squared
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11 Aug Election 2023: Nine Weeks Until D-Day  

Posted at 12:49h in Communications, Government Relations, News, Politics by

With a little over nine weeks to go until election day, political parties have been up and down the country announcing several policies in a variety of portfolios. Things are undoubtedly heating up, Parliament only has three more weeks left, and then we are into the swing of the campaign — where anything can happen. 

Recent polling suggests that there is a swing to the right, with National and ACT being able to form the next Government.  

‘Polling’ is a word that is going to be thrown around a lot before we approach the ballot boxes,  especially because the race is still so tight. When looking at political polls it is important to look at the general trends, rather than each individual one. Pollsters use unique methods, so taking one poll as gospel may lead you astray.  

Over the last three months there has been a shift to towards a National/ACT Government, but the numbers are still too close to declare what the next Government might look like exactly. Remember, public polling does not consider electorate seats, so you can still expect some surprises come October 14.   

There has been a clear focus on transport in the last week, and most benefits are for Auckland, with both major parties committing billions of dollars to the region. As the saying goes, “Rome wasn’t built in a day” and any large transport projects proposed by both Labour and National will go through a serious amount of consultation and paperwork before a shovel even breaks the ground. Transmission Gully is evidence of that, John Key announced that in 2009 and it was more than 13 years before a wheel hit the road.  

The Greens are again targeting their base by doubling down on a wealth tax and providing universal welfare in the form of dental care. On current polling, the Greens look steady and will likely have a similar number of MPs in Parliament as do now. But whether they sit in the opposition benches or in Government will depend on how poorly or how well their friends in Labour campaign.  

ACT has long been the party of lower taxes, and to having a functioning country with their tax plan, you must make cuts somewhere. It’s no surprise they want save $1b by culling Wellington’s bureaucracy. Polling suggests they are going to get more MPs into Parliament than they already have, meaning that gives David Seymour leverage should National and ACT need to form a coalition. Christopher Luxon will be hoping to grab some of those votes off ACT over the next nine weeks, so watch him and his front bench campaign hard in some of those places where Seymour may look like he is getting the upper hand. 

As many in the business know, a week is a long time in politics, so nine weeks to go means anything can – and will – happen. Polls tell a story, but they don’t always tell the full truth. Instead, it’s the people in the polling booths who will decide the direction this country moves in. The race is by no means won, so keep your eyes open, and enjoy the ride!